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Ballotpedia partnered with Evolving Strategies and surveyed voters across seven states (June 10 – 22) regarding their vote preferences. In one set, we matched Hillary Clinton (D) in a series of two-way contests with Donald Trump (R), Ohio Governor John Kasich (R), and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R).
The tightest battleground race between the two frontrunners was in Iowa, where Clinton led Trump by a weighted 4 percentage points.
These regulations, known as ballot access laws, determine whether a candidate or party will appear on an election ballot. A presidential candidate must prepare to meet ballot access requirements well in advance of primaries, caucuses, and the general election.
For more information, see Ballot access for presidential candidates.
Throughout 2016, polling was often tight in these states and districts, and their voting histories made their outcomes difficult to predict.
For these reasons, we referred to them as "battlegrounds." The reason these states and two districts had so much sway in the 2016 presidential election was largely because most of the electoral college map was already set in place before any votes for president were cast, but the battleground states were still up for grabs.
Evolving Strategies and Ballotpedia surveyed 4,242 registered voters, with a margin of error of /-4.0%.